A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
